(1)  Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs  ($24.6 million, $7887 per screen, $60 million total):  Dropping only 19% from a decent opening weekend, it appears that people actually like this movie and are on the verge of turning it into a legitimate hit.  That’s good news for the box office, which otherwise is in shambles right this moment.

(2)  Surrogates  ($15 million, $5083 per screen):  I was convinced this was going to do okay, but looking back on it, I’m not sure why I thought that.  I guess I’m stuck in the early ’90s, when Bruce Willis was actually relevant as a box-office star.  No more.

And I’d guess that those silly shots of him with a full head of blond hair may have cost the movie millions of dollars in ticket sales.

Surrogates was positioned to be the 2009 version of 2008′s Eagle Eye, a mildly successful sci-fi/action thriller, and it won’t end up being even as successful as that.

(3)  Fame  ($10 million, $3241 per screen):  A remake of a movie people below the age of 35 don’t remember, starring nobody the paparazzi would break into a trot to photograph, opening in late September…?  That equals non-starter, and that’s exactly what MGM got.  All things considered, this movie probably overperformed.

(4)  The Informant!  ($6.9 million, $2760 per screen, $20.9 million total):  Holding up reasonably well from last weekend, this movie still has a long way to go before anybody will be calling it a success.

(5)  I Can Do Bad All By Myself  ($4.7 million, $2241 per screen, $44.5 million total):  Continuing to slow down, which is typical for Tyler Perry movies.

(6)  Pandorum  ($4.4 million, $1759 per screen):  As predicted, nobody cared.  I’m surprised it made as much as it did.

(7)  Love Happens  ($4.3 million, $2280 per screen, $14.7 million total)/(8)  Jennifer’s Body  ($3.5 million, $1278 per screen, $12.3 million total):  Last week’s pair of high-profile duds got no solace this week, as the chances of either of them becoming slight word-of-mouth successes flew out the window.  Both will bedistant memories in another couple of weeks.

(9)  Appropriately enough, 9  ($2.8 million, $1399 per screen, $27 million total):  The movie is now close to earning back its stated budget of $30 million, so it’s not all bad news for the studio.  Still, this was a dud.

(10)  Inglourious Basterds  ($2.7 million, $1389 per screen, $114.4 million total):  Continuing to do relatively well on a week-to-week basis, this is the last week we’ll be hearing from Aldo and his Apaches in this column, but they had a good run, and will be fondly remembered.

Next week finds five new movies going into wide release, including Capitalism: A Love Story, which performed quite well in its limited opening this weekend, averaging $60,000 on eahc of its four screens.  It won’t do as well when it hits 1000 screens, but look for it to pull in no less than $5 million.

Pixar will possibly get its first taste of defeat when it rereleases Toy Story and Toy Story 2 as a combo double feature, this time in digital 3D.  Now, I can see this doing as well as $15 million, but I can also imagine people mostly looking at it and shrugging.  After all, do you know anybody who wants to take their kids to a three-hour movie?  I didn’t think so.  But I will say this: if I’m wrong, and the box office take is considerable, then it means next summer’s Toy Story 3 is going to be absolutely ginormous.

Also opening: Ricky Gervais’s The Invention of Lying (nobody cares), Drew Barrymore’s Whip It (good for $7 million), and Woody Harrelson’s Zombieland (good for $10 million now and every pothead in the world claiming it as their favorite movie five years hence).

It can’t help you get through reading it, though; that’s on you.

(1)  Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs  ($30.1 million, $9651 per screen):  Not too shabby an opening for a kiddie show opening during the first couple of months of the new school year.  It’s got a cute, visually appealing concept, and the movie got decent reviews, so it’ll probably play reasonably well over the next few weeks.  This is the kind of movie that keeps theatres afloat during the lean months of September.

(2)  The Informant!  ($10.5 million, $4210 per screen):  Let’s just say it right out in the open: the studio kinda just dumped this into theatres.  Opening a movie for adults this early on in the football season is a bit like committing box-office suicide, and this tepid opening reflects that.  Add in the fact that a decent number of the rubes who bought tickets attendees probably expected to see something more along the lines The Bourne Informant and I would guess Matt Damon is going to have to rely on Invictus to bring him all of his true ’09 glory.  Too bad; I hear this is a pretty great movie.

(3)  I Can Do Bad All By Myself  ($10 million, $4461 per screen, $37.9 million total):  As is typically the case with Tyler Perry movies, this one nosedove in its second weekend, dropping 57%.  That’s still a good total for a low-budget film, though, and the descent will level off from here, resulting in a total in the $50-60 million range.  Trust me, nobody will be less inclined to bankroll a Tyler Perry movie because of this one.

That won’t be true for the next few names discussed.

(4)  Love Happens  ($8.4 million, $4455 per screen):  An exceptionally weak debut for Jennifer Aniston’s new chick flick, especially considering how well her last couple of films (Marley & Me and He’s Just Not That Into You) performed.  Folks, these are the facts: nobody goes to see a movie because of Jennifer Aniston.  She may not keep people away, either, not if the concept is good (see previous two films); but if there’s not much of a hook, then you can expect a dud.  Here’s another fact: Aaron Eckhart ain’t much of a hook.

You can damn well bet that those two actors’ agents are having a shitty week already.

However, not as shitty as the agent for…

(5)  Jennifer’s Body  ($6.8 million, $2517 per screen):  …Megan Fox.  For the past half-a-year or so, Fox has been all over magazine covers, all over the internet, all over television; omnipresent wouldn’t be the right word, but it’d be close.  In short, the industry has been doing its damnedest to turn Fox into Angelina Jolie 2.0, and for a while there, it looked like they were making some excellent progress.

Screech, crash, bang, boom.  Looks like that progress has been halted.

This is a terrible performance for a movie as relentlessly promoted as this one was.  (The per-screen average is particularly awful.)  And since Megan Fox was nearly the sole focus of that promotion, it really can’t be seen any other way than as a referendum on the actress herself.  It may not kill her career, but it’s certainly going to wound it.

Emerging marginally less scathed: screenwriter Diablo Cody.  The movie got decent reviews, and at least a few of those reviews suggested that the marketing campaign would have been better served focusing on Cody’s dialogue.  Also, this fail is balanced out by a big weekend win for Cody: her Showtime series The United States of Tara picked up a big Emmy nod this weekend for it sstar, Toni Collette.

Also emerging totally unscathed: the adorable Amanda Seyfried, who got mostly great reviews for her role in Jennifer’s Body.  Her star power lives to be tested another day.

(6)  9  ($5.4 million, $2650 per screen, $22.7 million total):  An uninspired second weekend.  This one is fading into cult obscurity pretty quickly.

(7)  Inglourious Basterds  ($3.6 million, $1430 per screen, $109.9 million total):  In terms of pure dollars, this one is now Quentin Tarantino’s most successful film to date.  That’s a big win for everybody involved.  It’ll be interesting to see how the movie fares come awards season.

(8)  All About Steve  ($3.4 million, $1575 per screen, $26.6 million total):  Giving back almost all of those points she earned with The Proposal this summer, this one is a big black eye for Sandra Bullock.

(9)  Sorority Row  ($2.4 million, $961 per screen, $8.8 million):  $961 per screen!  That’s terrible.  Between this and Jennifer’s Body, it’s been a rock-bottom couple of weekends for horror films.  If not for the final flick in the top 10, people would be talking about how horror is dead … again.

(10)  The Final Destination  ($2.3 million, $1316 per screen, $62 million total):  The flick took a big 57% hit this weekend, no doubt due to the opening of Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs on 3D screens.  The scrapping over 3D screens can be fairly rough, and if more theatres don’t start adding more compatible screens soon, the format is going to have a hard time ever truly becoming anything more than a gimmick.

Next week brings Bruce Willis’s Surrogates, which looks okay and might actually succeed in tearing a few dudes away from the football for a couple of hours.  I’m going to guess that it opens at about $27 million.

Also on the dockets: Astro Boy on Wednesday (nobody cares), Fame (nobody cares), and Pandorum (nobody cares).

However, I was dead wrong about which one would be an achiever and which would be a loser.

(1)  The Final Destination ($28.3 million, $9079 per screen):  This, frankly, is a bit stunning.  Not only did it trounce the Rob Zombie movie, it also handily beat the openings of the first three films in its own series … without having one single star in the cast.

Is there any doubt left that 3D can be a big draw?

(2)  Inglourious Basterds ($20 million, $6332 per screen, $73.7 million total):  Here’s an interesting fact.  This movie’s gross on Friday was down about 60% from its Friday gross last week, which is usually a sign of doom and gloom.  However, the weekend overall ended up being down only 47% from last weekend, which is a big turnaround from that second Friday.

What does this mean?

Well, who can say for sure, but it seems highly likely to me that it means the movie has good word of mouth among older audiences, who tend to go to the movies on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

They also tend — as we’ll see with at least one other movie further down the chart — to cause a movie to stick around for a number of weeks, so this might be excellent news for the long-term prospects for the Basterds.  Tarantino and Pitt (not to mention the Weinsteins) are undoubtedly smiling widely over this one.

(3)  Halloween II ($17.4 million, $5754 per screen):  A very disappointing opening, considering that the first film in Zombie’s series opened to nearly $30 million.  Clearly, this movie was the victim both of disdain for the first movie and of the unexpectedly stout competition from The Final Destination.

I’d guess it’ll be a while before Hollywood opens two same-genre films on the same weekend agaain.

The budget on this movie was apparently only $15 million, so nobody will lose any money on the deal.  Still, a disappointment.

(4)  District 9 ($10.7 million, $3365 per screen, $90.8 million total):  Down 41% this weekend, it’s another good performance from the Blomkamp flick, which is now a lock to make $100 million.

(5)  G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($8 million, $2307 per screen, $132,4 million total):  Down 35%, which isn’t bad, I continue to be fairly impressed by how well this movie is doing.  Not a huge hit, by any means, but it’s doing similarly reobust business overseas, which probably means a sequel is a go.

(6)  Julie & Julia ($7.4 million, $2956 per screen, $70.9 million total):  Word of mouth continues to propel this movie into strong business.  It dropped only 16% this weekend, and I’m now starting to wonder if that magic — and mostly meaningless — plateau of $100 million isn’t doable, after all.  As I mentioned earlier, movies that really entertain older audiences tend to have long shelf lives, and if you want a great argument for that fact, look no further than this movie.

(7)  The Time Traveler’s Wife ($6.7 million, $2278 per screen, $48.1 million total):  This movie is also holding up well, and while Eric Bana can’t quite claim to be a box-office star yet, it’s clear that he still has potential.

(8)  Shorts ($4.8 million, $1568 per screen, $13.5 million total):  There isn’t much kiddie business to be had during this part of the summer, but this movie dropped only 24%, which is at least a mild rebound from a poor opening weekend.

(9)  Taking Woodstock ($3.7 million, $2691 per screen):  Not good.  Clearly, nobody much cared to see a movie about Woodstock that wasn’t really about Woodstock.

(10)  G-Force ($2.8 million, $1477 per screen, $111.8 million total):  If Disney World ever opens a ride based on this movie, I’m gonna crap in its doorway.

Elsewhere on the charts, there was another strong late-run performance from Harry Potter; the sixth film in the series is up to $294 million, and seems likely to hit the $300 million mark, which will make it the most successful entry since the first one.  Looks like those IMAX screens were pretty darn helpful, after all.

Also, both (500) Days of Summer and Ponyo continue to hold up well (dropping merely 9% and 19%, respectively).  Both films have proven to be very successful with the audiences they were aimed at.

Next weekend is Dragon*Con weekend for me, so this column will be taking a one-week hiatus.

Oh, well.  String theory suggests that I was right somewhere.

(1)  Inglourious Basterds ($37.6 million, $11,881 per screen):  Setting a new record for last-half-of-August opening weekends, this one is honestly a bit of a surprise to me.  Even more surprising is the fact that it played well throughout the weekend, rather than just opening big on Friday and then dying off by Sunday.

My guess is that you can credit Brad Pitt with a lot of this success, and the trailers for much of the rest.  I would wager that a lot of people saw their first Tarantino movie this weekend, and it’ll be interesting to see what next weekend looks like for the film.  It has been greeted with a certain amount of vitriol by a large segment of the fanboy community, but it may be that the film is playing well for people it wasn’t necessarily intended for.

I’m going to predict a 60% dropoff, which is large but not catastrophic.  Either way, it looks like Tarantino has successfully recovered from the box-office disappointment of Grindhouse.

(2)  District 9 ($18.9 million, $6197 per screen, $73.4 million total):  Dropping 50% this weekend, that’s a much softer decline than the somewhat similar Cloverfield suffered in its second weekend.  It looks as if people are embracing this movie fairly warmly; good news for all concerned, especially fans of original, high-quality science fiction films.

(3)  G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($12.5 million, $3162 per screen, $120.5 million total):  Showing some signs of stability in its third weekend, the dumb-as-a-box-of-nail-clippings action flick has probably started to catch on as a family film.

(4)  The Time Traveler’s Wife ($10 million, $3355 per screen, $37.4 million total):  Down 46% this weekend, that’s a steeper drop than is common for romance films, and I think I know the reason why…

(5)  Julie & Julia ($9 million, $3654 per screen, $59.2 million total):  …Julie & Julia is finally showing some leg.  Dropping only 25% this weekend, the culinary-centric movie actually made more per screen than did The Time Traveler’s Wife.  Word of mouth seems to finally be getting around that Julie & Julia is a good time at the movie; I doubt it’s in time for the final gross to hit $100 million, but stranger things have happened.

(6)  Shorts ($6.6 million, $2126 per screen):  Debuting with a smaller per-screen average than the second weekend of Ponyo, Robert Rodriguez’s latest kidsploitation opus is a bona fide dud.  Robert, can you please cut this shit out now?  And by the way, thank you in advance for Machete.

(7)  G-Force ($4.2 million, $1642 per screen, $107.3 million total):  If were one of those hot True Blood vampires — not the faggy Twilight ones — I’d have bloody eye corners every time I had to write about this fucking movie.

(8)  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($3.5 million, $1816 per screen, $290.2 million total):  Continuing its solid run, can this movie squeak its way to $300 million?  It’s gonna be close.

(9)  The Ugly Truth ($2.8 million, $1446, $82.8 million total):  Good run, fine total, blah blah blah.

(10)  Post Grad ($2.8 million, $1429 per screen):  Not a good debut by any means.

Elsewhere on the chart:

(12)  Ponyo ($2.4 million, $2620 per screen, $8.1 million total):  Down 32% from last weekend, the Miyazaki import is doing fairly well.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this helps him become a bigger name here in America; I suspect a lot of people have been exposed to his work for the first time.

Next weekend is an odd one, with two high-profile horror flicks debuting simultaneously: Rob Zombie’s Halloween 2 and The Final Destination, which really ought to have been titled Final Destination 4 3D.

The marketing for The Final Destination has been pretty soft, but it’s still a well-known franchise, and the lure of 3D could work again.  Overall, though, I’d say the weekend probably belongs to Zombie.  Let’s say $25 million, with the possibility of a repeat at the top for the Basterds.

(1)  District 9 ($37.3 million, $12,251 per screen):  Sony’s marketing department seems to have learned all the lessons there were to be learned from the successful opening of last year’s Cloverfield, and as a result, they got a pretty great opening weekend themselves.

It’s always impressive when a movie that is free of star actors opens well, and it’s doubly impressive when that movie isn’t based on a comic book or a bestselling novel or some other source with a built-in audience.  In this instance, it’s tempting to say that the star responsible for the successful launch is producer Peter Jackson; however, since his only hits were reliant not on his name but on the source material on which they were based, you can’t realistically say that the name “Peter Jackson” being on a poster is a name that guarantees ticket sales.

Instead, it appears that people responded to the trailers, which promised an inventive and substantial sci-fi action flick.  It’s an unmitigated triumph for director Neill Blomkamp, who will likely find himself in a situation to do whatever he wants to do next.

(2)  G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($22.3 million, $5571 per screen, $98.5 million total):  Falling 60% from its opening weekend, Paramount nevertheless has a solid performer on their hands with this one, which probably won’t make $150 million, but will certainly make enough of a dent that a sequel might well be a good investment.  Nobody seems to genuinely like the film except people who wear sweatpants out to eat, but the reception for the film has been surprisingly decent, and I’d expect the film’s dropoffs to level off quite a bit from here on out.

(3)  The Time Traveler’s Wife ($18.6 million, $6233 per screen):  Not an especially terrific opening weekend, but it’s respectable enough.  It’s been a busy summer for Eric Bana, who — between Star Trek and Funny People and now this — has been in a slew of high-profile releases.  This is the only one that leaned on him as a lead, and the mixed results are indicative of the kind of career he’s having: good enough that he keeps getting work, but never quite good enough to push him into the next level.

The same might be said of co-star Rachel McAdams, who at one point seemed like she might turn into the next Julia Roberts circa 1995, but now seems like she might turn into the next Julia Roberts circa 2005.

(4)  Julie & Julia ($12 million, $5121 per screen, $43.3 million total):  Down a surprisingly hefty 40% this weekend, it seems unlikely that it’s going to be a big performer.  With the summer coming to an end and the glut of high-profile pics aimed at women slowing down, though, don’t be surprised if it starts picking up steam.

(5)  G-Force ($6.9 million, $2256 per screen, $99 million total):  In the dregs of a deep recession, America can still find $100 million dollars lying around to spend on the movie about a secret spy force of talking guinea pigs.

Motherfucker.

(6)  The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard ($5.6 million, $3070 per screen):  The moment I realized that I had no interest in seeing this movie was the moment I found out that the film’s title is not The Goods, but The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard.  Looks like America also couldn’t be bothered.  Looks like that boost from co-star Ed “The Hangover” Helms never happened.

(7)  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($5.1 million, $1855 per screen, $283.8 million total):  Factoring in inflation, it looks like this is one is going to be very marginally less successful than Order of the Phoenix.  I guess the series has gotten as popular as it’s going to get, but that’s proven to be pretty darn popular.

(8)  The Ugly Truth ($4.4 million, $1628 per screen, $77.4 million total):  Probably will only get one more weekend in the top ten, but it’s been a solid performer.

(9)  Ponyo ($3.5 million, $3868 per screen):  Making nearly twice what I expected it to make, you can’t quite call this movie a hit, but I don’t think it’s something anyone ought to feel ashamed of, either.  Miyazaki’s movies, apart from a cult crowd, have never caught on here in America, so the fact that (out of the top ten movies) Ponyo had the fifth-best per-screen average this weekend seems like a small triumph.  It’ll probably fade fast, but a final gross of close to $10 million is likely, and that’s not bad for a low-scale release like this one.

(10)  Funny People ($3 million, $1165 per screen, $47.9 million total):  Trust me, nobody at Universal thinks this is even the slightest bit funny.  The budget, according to Box Office Mojo, was $75 million.  Compare that to the $30 million spent on District 9, and try and figure out what good it did anybody to spend $75 million on this mess of a film.

Next weekend, it’s Tarantino versus Rodriguez, as both Inglourious Basterds and Shorts hit the screen.  Don’t be surprised if it’s neck-and-neck as to which one comes out on top.

Where you goin’, Judd Apatow?

(1)  G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($56.2 million, $14.025 per screen):  We live in an era that can easily find a true blockbuster making around $56.2 million on its opening day, so it’s hard to be too impressed by this opening weekend.  On the other hand, it’s a decent enough rollout, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if it holds up relatively well over the next few weeks.  The movie seems to be entertaining the type of people who are likely to be entertained by a movie like this; they might well make it a genuine hit.

Is it just me, or does the movie kinda remind you of a feature-length version of one of those clips of films Vincent Chase is supposedly starring in on Entourage?  You know, you see those clips of Aquaman or Medellin and you’re not sure if you’re supposed to actually think they look awesome, or if you’re supposed to be kinda amused by the idea that someone would think you would think they look awesome.  G.I. Joe is kinda like that, and Channing Tatum is about as appealing a lead as Vincent Chase … which ain’t sayin’ much.

(2)  Julie & Julia ($20.1 million, $8539 per screen):  This opening feels maybe just a wee bit weak to me; I was kinda thinking it might get closer to $30 million.  Still, when you consider how many of the tickets were probably sold at the discounted senior-citizen price, this is a fairly solid, if unspectacular, opening.  I’d expect the legs to be considerable; don’t be surprised when the movie ends up making $100 million.

(3)  G-Force ($9.8 million, $2816 per screen, $86.1 million total):  Speaking of movie that are going to make $100 million, please pardon me for a moment while I vomit bits of fried chicken into my upper throat region.  Mmm, they’re bitter.

(4)  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($8.8 million, $2570 per screen, $273.8 million total):  Looks like those IMAX screens helped a little, but only a little.  This movie has nothing much to be ashamed of, but considering that ginormous opening day was pretty darn ginormous, well, it’s all felt like a big letdown since then.  In reality, though, it’s performed the same way all of the Potter films have done since the first one.  The next one comes out in the fall, and I’ll be interested to see if the return to the days of falling leaves and visible breath prompt an uptick in the receipts.

(5)  Funny People ($7.8 million, $2615 per screen, $40.4 million total):  Judd Apatow officially takes one on the chin.  The opening weekend was a slight disappointment; the second weekend is a near-disaster, plummeting 65% and wiping away any chance that this one could turn into a word-of-mouth hit (like Apatow’s previous films, The 40-Year-Old and Knocked Up).  This may also wipe away any chance Adam Sandler may have had at becoming a bankable star in serious roles.  Since previous efforts like Punch-Drunk Love, Spanglish, and Reign Over Me all fizzled, he managed to make it to a fourth strike; surely he’s out by this point.  Kind of a shame, since this undoubtedly means we’re due for another decade of incredibly, abysmally unfunny fart gags, dick jokes, and Rob Schneider cameos.  Kill me now.

It’s also another blow to the budding stardom of Seth Rogen, who has been in several commercial misfires in a row (including Zack and Miri Make a Porno and Observe and Report).  Sony must be feeling pretty nervous about that Green Hornet movie he’s making for the director of flop Be Kind, Rewind (Michel Gondry).  If Rogen now can’t manage to hit in an Apatow flick, it may mean America has dumped him.

And frankly, the more I think about it, the less I like Funny People, which has occasional flashes of inspiration but is largely a movie with no sense of direction.

(6)  The Ugly Truth ($7 million, $2353 per screen, $69 million total):  Man, this thing has made $70 million?  Seriously?

(7)  A Perfect Getaway ($5.6 million, $2670 per screen):  For a movie with not a great deal of promotion starring Milla Jovovich and zero zombies, this could have actually gone a lot worse.  Universal clearly dumped the movie into the marketplace, and can’t have been expecting much more than what they got.

(8)  Aliens in the Attic ($4 million, $1287 per screen, $16.2 million total):  Man, for a second weekend, that is a terrible per-screen average.  How on earth did Fox manage to get this thing onto over 3000 screens?

(9)  Orphan ($3.7 million, $1643 per screen, $34.8 million total):  Oughta be on DVD any second now.

(10)  (500) Days of Summer ($3.7 million, $4559 per screen, $12.3 million total):  Playing on about 800 screens, that per-screen average suggests that Fox would have been better advised to turn those 3000 screens showing Aliens in the Attic to this little arthouse darling.  Considering how many movies come out next week, it won’t be easy to get into many more theatres than it’s already in, and that might well keep it from blossoming into a true hit.

Speaking of next week, man, I dunno if I’m just out of practice from taking a week off or what, but I have no frickin’ clue what anything is going to make.

The winner of the weekend will probably be either G.I. Joe or District 9, which certainly has the ‘net a-buzzin’ … but that doesn’t always translate to bucks.  I think it’s going to end up in second place with a bit more than $20 million.

The Time Traveler’s Wife would smell like a hit in February, but in August, it seems like a castoff.  I think women might be busy seeing Julie & Julia and not caring about Eric Bana.  Also, Rachel McAdams might once have seemed sure to be The Next Big Thing, but she’s been off the radar for too long for me to think she’s got any real pull.  I think this movie will be lucky to do $15 million; then again, it’s based on a best-seller, which sometimes helps.

The Goods might benefit from a desire in fans of The Hangover to see another raunchy comedy, but I honestly have no sense of how well this movie has been promoted.  BoxOfficeMojo.com lists it as opening on only 1500 screens, which does not seem like a vote of confidence.  I’m gonna say $12 million.

Bandslam … what the fuck is a Bandslam, and does anyone care?

That leaves Ponyo, which gets an overly optimistic 800-screen release and will be lucky to crack $2 million unless I’m badly mistaken.  And in this instance, I hope I’m VERY badly mistaken.

Now, I knew this movie was probably going to do decent business, but somehow, seeing the evidence of it there on the computer screen plain as day just makes it sting a bit worse.

I don’t want to be too offensive here, but G-Force is a movie engineered to sap dollars out of stupid people, and it looks like it worked.  Damn you Disney, why must you sometimes pander so?

(2)  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($29.4 million, $6812 per screen, $221.2 million total):  The latest adventure at Hogwarts dropped a hefty 62% from its opening weekend.  To be clear that’s a 62% drop from a weekend that was already a bit disappointing (Half-Blood Prince made more on Wednesday and Thursday last week than it made on Friday through Sunday, which is more front-loaded than a blockbuster really ought to be).

Still, the movie is doing generally good business, and this week’s expansion onto IMAX screens might well provide a boost to the box office.  I’m going to say that this movie stalls out at around $275 million domestic, but the IMAX influx might prove me wrong.

(3)  The Ugly Truth ($27.6 million, $9579 per screen):  Check out that per-screen average if you want to really know how well this movie did.  And bear in mind that G-Force‘s receipts were bolstered by the 3D surcharge on many of its screens.

In other words, Katherine Heigl is now a genuinely bankable star, and her latest movie sold out on screens nationwide.  If Sony had been able to get this thing onto more screens, they might have had a #1 on their hands.

(4)  Orphan ($12.8 million, $4681 per screen):  For example: I bet exhibitors wish they could have given up some of Orphan‘s screens to The Ugly Truth.  The two films debuted on roughly the same number of screens, but the romcom did nearly a third more business.  Horror has been an iffy proposition this summer, and even during the spring, this would have been a weak debut.  Expect it to fade fast.

(5)  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($8.4 million, $2548 per screen, $171.4 million total):  Down over 50% this weekend, the prehistoric critters tok a bit of a hammering by the tiny fists of the G-Force gang.  Christ, I hope I never have to write a sentence like that one again.

(6)  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($8.1 million, $2510 per screen, $379.2 million):  Once again reaping quite a few dollars from kids held back a grade and from people who wear sweatpants in public, Michael Bay and the ghettobots continue to steamroll through the history books.

(7)  The Hangover ($6.4 million, $2828 per screen, $247 million total):  The comedy that would not die didn’t die this weekend, either.  Down a mere 21%, the roofie-flavored laffer might well get a beating at Adam Sandler’s hands the next time I write this column.  But don’t bet too much on it.

(8)  The Proposal ($6.3 million, $2296 per screen, $140 million total):  The Ugly Truth didn’t hurt a bit, nope; in fact, The Proposal was down only 23% this weekend, which almost certainly means that it benefitted from all those sold-out screens for the Hiegl flick.

(9)  Public Enemies ($4.3 million, $1900 per screen, $88.2 million total):  Neither truly impressive nor truly unimpressive, the box-office on this one has just been kinda blah.

(10)  Bruno ($2.8 million, $1495 per screen, $56.6 million total):  Sacha Baron Cohen might well find his career damaged a bit off of the relative stench this movie has exuded.  The movie had a good opening day, and everything after that has been disappointing at best.

(12)  (500) Days of Summer:  Another good weekend for the indie darling, which averaged $19,244 on its 85 screens.  Still stands a decent shot at becoming a hit if Fox can find it some more screens.

Next weekend: Funny People and Aliens in the Attic.  And The Collector, for the none of you who care about that.

Now, normally, I’m vehemently anti-Sandler, but this time, he’s starring in a Judd Apatow-directed movie, so I’m sold.  I’ve got nothing against Sandler; it’s his movies I can’t fucking stand.  The box-office question is whether or not this movie is gimmicky enough for America’s comedic tastes.  I’m thinking not.  It’ll debut with a disappointing $23 million.

If Aliens in the Attic makes more than $10 million, I’ll vomit.

Well, that didn’t happen, but here’s one record which did fall: Half-Blood Prince is now the champeen for worldwide five-day release, pulling in a bit less than $397 million (that breaks the previous record held by Spider-Man 3, which made nearly $382 million in its opening five days).

As with many franchises that have hard-core followings, you can expect the box-office to drop off by sixty percent or more next weekend.  Regardless, Warner Bros. will be rolling in cash this week, and the series shows no signs of abating in popularity.

(2)  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($17.5 million, $4601 per screen, $151.8 million total):  Down 36% this weekend, the prehistoric critters got only mildly wounded by Harry and friends.

(3)  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($13.6 million, $3550 per screen, $363.8 million total):  The Autobots continue to mediocre their way to $400 million.  My mouth tastes suddenly of yellow spit.

(4)  Bruno ($8.3 million, $3015 per screen, $49.5 million total):  Down nearly 73% this weekend, and no surprise there.  Bruno is likely to make less than half of what Borat made, which is fairly pathetic as far as big-ticket sequels go.

(5)  The Proposal ($8.2 million, $2724 per screen, $128 million total):  Another solid weekend for the romantic comedy, although it will probably take a hit at the hands of The Ugly Truth this weekend.  Alternatively, if that one hits and sells out screens, The Proposal might actually benefit from it.

(6)  The Hangover ($8.1 million, $3066 per screen, $235.7 million total):  Refusing to go away, the comedy of the summer is off only 17% from last weekend, and will probably be around until Labor Day, at this rate.

(7)  Public Enemies ($7.7 million, $2485 per screen, $79.6 million per screen):  Can the gangster flick make it to $100 million?  If so, it ain’t gonna be by much.  Still, it’s been a moderate success, and nobody involved has to hang their heads.

(8)  Up ($3.1 million, $1859 per screen, $279.5 million total):  Close to being out of the top ten, it’s been a great run for Pixar with this one.  If they made a feature-length movie about pieces of corn inside turds, I’d hesitate to bet against it being a classic.

(9)  My Sister’s Keeper ($2.8 million, $1438 per screen, $41.5 million total):  Yawn.

(10)  I Love You Beth Cooper ($2.7 million, $1478 per screen, $10.3 million total):  Double yawn.

(12)  (500) Days of Summer:  Averaging $30,907 per screen in its 27-screen opening weekend, this one stands a chance at being the first genuine limited-release hit of the summer.  If, that is, it can find screens to play on during August … and that’s no given.

I care so little about this weekend’s releases that I can’t even be bothered to make predictions.

What do you think?  Will tomorrow’s midnight screenings of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince set a new record for best midnight opening?  The current champeen is The Dark Knight, which last year at about this same time pulled in $18.5 million during the wee hours of its opening day.  The runner-up is currently Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, which bagged $16.9 million.  For a compariosn, this year’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is the third-place opener, with an even $16 million.

Clearly Harry’s chances are lessened due to the absence of the word “revenge” in the film’s title.

What say you?

(1)  Bruno ($30.4 million, $11,040 per screen):  As a de-facto sequel to Borat — which made nearly as much in its second weekend as this one did in its debut– there is simply no way to look at this as anything other than a disappointment.  Consider the fact that its Friday numbers accounted for nearly half of its overall weekend, and I think it’s clear that Bruno is little more than a blip on the summer-movie radar, destined to be all but forgotten by this time next week.  Move along, nothing to see here.

(2)  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($28.5 million, $6948 per screen, $120.5 million total):  Down roughly thirty percent this weekend, it’s a solid hold for the toon, for — as I believe I said last week, too — I can’t shake the feeling that Fox must have wanted more.  If nothing else, this offers proof that summer really isn’t the be-all, end-all of blockbuster release dates; the previous two films in this series opened in the spring, and this one is only doing about as well as those did; clearly, at least in this case, it’s the movie, not the release date.

(3)  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($24.2 million, $5637 per screen, $339.2 million total):  Dropping only about forty percent this weekend, the Autobots continue to chug along, damn their hollow metal souls.  They’re likely to suffer a bit at the hands of Hogwarts next week, though.

(4)  Public Enemies ($14.1 million, $4230 per screen, $66.5 million total):  Down 45% this weekend, that’s not bad, but neither is it an omen of particularly good word of mouth.  Look for this movie to top out at about $85 million and enjoy a long, comfortable life in the home market.

(5)  The Proposal ($10.5 million, $3327 per screen, $113.7 million total):  Down less than twenty percent this weekend, Ryan Reynolds has considerable cause to celebrate this weekend; between this and the news that he’s been cast as the Green Lantern in that movie, he’s doing okay for himself the past few days.

(6)  The Hangover ($9.9 million, $3308 per screen, $222.4 million total):  If someone had told you on May 1 that The Hangover would make close to $250 million, would you have believed them?  Yeah, me neither.

(7)  I Love You Beth Cooper ($5 million, $2691 per screen):  That’s a miserable debut, but Fox dumped the movie, so it probably could have been even worse.  Clearly, Hayden Panettiere is going to have to wait to become a star.

(8)  Up ($4.6 million, $2115 per screen, $273.7 million total):  It doesn’t appear that Up is going to be able to make it to the $300 million mark, but it’s still got an outside shot.  Definitely one of this summer’s biggest success stories, and probably its best movie.  Until G-Force comes out, that is.

(9)  My Sister’s Keeper ($4.1 million, $1710 per screen, $35.8 million total):  Yawn…

(10)  The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 ($1.6 million, $1434 per screen, $61.4 million total):  …so sleepy…

Wednesday brings us Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and if the reviews are any indication, it’s not only the best film of the series, but it’s the best by a large margin.  Advance ticket sales are through the roof, so look for the record for midnight-show openings to possibly be toppled.  This is a perennially strong series, so who knows how high the opening weekend could go.  I don’t think the five-day record being broken is in the cards … but … those advance sales are awfully strong.

My prediction: from Wednesday through Sunday, $185 million.