Box-Office Review: July 10-12, 2009
by Honk Mahfah on Jul.13, 2009, under Box-Office Review, Harry Potter, Movies
After a couple of high-profile box-office weekends, this one was just plain old boring. Thing are going to be lively enough come Wednesday, though, so don’t feel too bad for all those ticket sellers and popcorn slingers.
(1) Bruno ($30.4 million, $11,040 per screen): As a de-facto sequel to Borat — which made nearly as much in its second weekend as this one did in its debut– there is simply no way to look at this as anything other than a disappointment. Consider the fact that its Friday numbers accounted for nearly half of its overall weekend, and I think it’s clear that Bruno is little more than a blip on the summer-movie radar, destined to be all but forgotten by this time next week. Move along, nothing to see here.
(2) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($28.5 million, $6948 per screen, $120.5 million total): Down roughly thirty percent this weekend, it’s a solid hold for the toon, for — as I believe I said last week, too — I can’t shake the feeling that Fox must have wanted more. If nothing else, this offers proof that summer really isn’t the be-all, end-all of blockbuster release dates; the previous two films in this series opened in the spring, and this one is only doing about as well as those did; clearly, at least in this case, it’s the movie, not the release date.
(3) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($24.2 million, $5637 per screen, $339.2 million total): Dropping only about forty percent this weekend, the Autobots continue to chug along, damn their hollow metal souls. They’re likely to suffer a bit at the hands of Hogwarts next week, though.
(4) Public Enemies ($14.1 million, $4230 per screen, $66.5 million total): Down 45% this weekend, that’s not bad, but neither is it an omen of particularly good word of mouth. Look for this movie to top out at about $85 million and enjoy a long, comfortable life in the home market.
(5) The Proposal ($10.5 million, $3327 per screen, $113.7 million total): Down less than twenty percent this weekend, Ryan Reynolds has considerable cause to celebrate this weekend; between this and the news that he’s been cast as the Green Lantern in that movie, he’s doing okay for himself the past few days.
(6) The Hangover ($9.9 million, $3308 per screen, $222.4 million total): If someone had told you on May 1 that The Hangover would make close to $250 million, would you have believed them? Yeah, me neither.
(7) I Love You Beth Cooper ($5 million, $2691 per screen): That’s a miserable debut, but Fox dumped the movie, so it probably could have been even worse. Clearly, Hayden Panettiere is going to have to wait to become a star.
(8) Up ($4.6 million, $2115 per screen, $273.7 million total): It doesn’t appear that Up is going to be able to make it to the $300 million mark, but it’s still got an outside shot. Definitely one of this summer’s biggest success stories, and probably its best movie. Until G-Force comes out, that is.
(9) My Sister’s Keeper ($4.1 million, $1710 per screen, $35.8 million total): Yawn…
(10) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 ($1.6 million, $1434 per screen, $61.4 million total): …so sleepy…
Wednesday brings us Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and if the reviews are any indication, it’s not only the best film of the series, but it’s the best by a large margin. Advance ticket sales are through the roof, so look for the record for midnight-show openings to possibly be toppled. This is a perennially strong series, so who knows how high the opening weekend could go. I don’t think the five-day record being broken is in the cards … but … those advance sales are awfully strong.
My prediction: from Wednesday through Sunday, $185 million.
July 13th, 2009 on 10:02 am
I don’t think anybody thought The Hangover would be doing this kind of monster run. Not to take anything away from the movie, but I think maybe the economy is helping attendance (same goes for “Paul Blart”). With the economy leading all the news stories, people want to be able to laugh right now. I can’t think of many years where 2 comedies have been in the top 10.
I’m still not sure if the late IMAX opening for Harry Potter will help or hurt. I can look at it both ways. People might have been willing to spend a few extra dollars to see it on IMAX on opening week, but now they’ll just watch it in a regular theater and be done with it – in that scenario Warner lost out on a lot of premium priced tickets. Hopefully it will be the opposite and people will like it enough to see it a second time and pay even more money for IMAX tickets – in that scenario it will be a nice boost in the box office. For me, it’s going to be the latter. In fact I still have free passes but I’m going to be handing over money at the box office on July 15th and 29th – *that* is how much I want to help it beat Transformers.
July 13th, 2009 on 11:35 am
Yeah, I think the IMAX thing might actually help it, too. Most die-hard fans are not going to wait until the 29th to see it, but once it opens in IMAX, I think plenty of fans will be more than happy to go see it a second time.
July 13th, 2009 on 4:50 pm
I can’t wait until the midnight show of Harry Potter. I hope I see people in costume!
July 13th, 2009 on 4:54 pm
I’ll be dressed as a muggle who works as a projectionist at a movie theatre.