Loaded Couch Potatoes

Who won the weekend?  Was it Will Ferrell, Ed Asner, or Mike Tyson?

Here’s a hint: it wasn’t Will Ferrell.

(1)  The Hangover ($44.9 million, $13,759 per screen):  In a surprise upset, Sunday estimates pegged Up as the number one film for a second consecutive weekend.  However, in a Shyamalanesque last-scene plot twist, Variety broke the news today that The Hangover had rallied and reclaimed the #1 position thanks to stronger than expected grosses on Sunday.  Man, that’s excitinger than NASCAR!

No matter which position The Hangover occupies, it had a terrific weekend.  In fact, the entire industry seems to be fairly stunned by the movie’s success.  R-rated comedies simply don’t open this strongly very often, and every time they do, it’s big news; everyone loves a surprise.  I’d have to say that if there’s one element of this film’s success that deserves the credit, it’s the trailer campaign.  Those trailers were outstanding, delivering a steady stream of unexpectedly weird (yet totally relatable) humor that got progressively weirder as they went along.  And thus it is that Mike Tyson became one of the deadliest secret weapons unleashed so far this year.

Here’s how to interpret that greater-than-expected Sunday gross, by the way: people are flipping right the fuck out about how much they like this movie.  Personally, I wasn’t quite as impressed, but hey, that’s just me; the rest of the country had a blast, told friends, and will possibly be responsible for this movie having a second weekend at the top of the box-office heap next weekend.

(2)  Up ($44.1 million, $11,561 per screen, $137.2 million total):  Okay, sure, Up might not actually have been number one for the weekend … but don’t let that make this film’s second weekend seem any less impressive.  It’s down only about 35% from its excellent debut, and for a movie doing blockbuster business, that’s outstanding.  The word of mouth seems to be fantastic, which is great news for Pixar’s long-term prospects.  Those more-expensive 3D tickets are helping, and the lack of any direct competition until Ice Age 3 opens on July 1 means that Up has an entire month with the family-film field more or less all to itself.  This movie may turn out to be Pixar’s highest-grossing since Cars, and given how ambivalent certain segments of the industry seemed to be over the movie’s commercial prospects, that would be a major success.

(3)  Land of the Lost ($18.8 million, $5350 per screen):  Ouch.  For as high-profile a movie to open this poorly is disastrous.  Unmitigatedly, career-devastatingly disastrous.  We’re in an era in which a big-business film can easily make twice as much on its opening day; an opening weekend this miniscule is simply not acceptable.  Will Ferrell is likely to find his salary lowered, and his ability to instantly have a project greenlit damaged; director Brad Silberling will have a hard time getting another large budget; and the director of the marketing campaign, if there’s any justice, will be working at a Target.

Part of this seems to have been simple bad luck.  There were two ways the movie could have been sold: as a family-friendly sci-fi adventure or as a satirical absurdist comedy for hipsters.  The latter approach would have been much more accurate to the actual content of the film, and might have at least made the film seem more interesting (with a bit of editing to downplay the plot in some scenes, the movie itself might have been successful on those grounds) … but even then, The Hangover would have annihilated it.  Sold as a family action film, the effects and sets and makeup looked like garbage, and the few bits of humor clean enough to preserve the illusion of family-friendly fun were feeble and unfunny; what family would opt for this over Up and Night at the Museum?

Expect the dropoff next weekend to be in the 70% range, if not more; exhibitors are going to dump this thing as quickly as they are contractually allowed.  The final gross will be less than $50 million, which is possibly even more disappointing a performance for Universal than Warner Bros. had last summer with Speed Racer.

(4)  Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ($14.6 million, $3844 per screen, $127.3 million total):  Down only about 40% this weekend, the Ben Stiller comedy had a fairly good third weekend.  This is proving to be a strong summer for family movies at the box office … which makes Land of the Lost seem like even more of a bomb.  The museum sequel has still been hit hard by Pixar, but not quite as hard as it appeared last weekend.

(5)  Star Trek ($8.3 million, $2595 per screen, $222.7 million total):  Spending a fifth consecutive weekend in the top five, Star Trek is doing terrific business.  It’s on track to become the highest-grossing of all the Trek movies even with inflation taken into account (adjusted to 2009 dollars, Star Trek: The Motion Picture made roughly $239 million).  That has to be considered a major success for Paramount.

The news isn’t quite as rosy for the movie’s grosses outside of America: internationally, it’s made only about $112 million.  However, the franchise has traditionally performed poorly overseas relative to its domestic performance; the previous high earner in the franchise was Star Trek: First Contact, which earned a mere $57.4 million (or $78 million adjusted).

What does all that mean?  Well, it means that Trek is primarily an American phenomenon.  However, consider this: using the adjusted totals, Star Trek (2009) domestic box-office gross is currently 92.8% as much as the gross for the previous top earner in the series … whereas its international gross is 43.5% more than the previous top earner.  In other words, compared to the previous benchmark for the franchise, the international grosses are actually outpacing the domestic grosses by a substantial margin.  What that says to me is that Paramount has succeeded not only in rejuvenating the series at home, it has succeeded in greatly boosting its international appeal.  From that perspective, the international grosses begin to look rather impressive, which is probably great news for the sequel, provided they can maintain the quality level.

It’s also worth noting that composer Michael Giacchino has three films in the top five this weekend (Up, Land of the Lost, and Star Trek), a significant achievement for anyone working in Hollywood.

(6)  Terminator Salvation ($8.2 million, $2496 per screen, $105.5 million total):  Down 50% this weekend, the slide is easing a bit, but it’s too little, too late.  A bit of good news from the overseas markets: its opening weekend brought in $67.5 million internationally.  It’s at slightly more than $100 million internationally, and great international grosses are the one thing which could potentially save the franchise; if the worldwide total can get to, say, $400 million, then there might yet be another sequel.  Hopefully, it will be without this film’s writers and director.

(7)  Drag Me to Hell ($7 million, $2805 per screen, $28.2 million total):  Down nearly 54% this weekend, which puzzles me a bit.  I felt sure this would be a big word-of-mouth success; after all, what horror fan wouldn’t have had a blast watching this movie?  Can it be that the circa-2009 horror movie audience is composed of idiots who wouldn’t know a good horror movie if it vomited bugs onto their faces?  That’s my theory.  How dreck like The Haunting in Connecticut could post better earnings than Drag Me to Hell is a mystery to me … or is it?  I wonder if this might have something to do with the release date?  Horror films are largely attended by high-school students, and since school is currently out for everyone except those too retarded in their progress to advance to the next grade, might it be that reduced lunchroom gatherings have translated into reduced social planning, and reduced ticket sales for Sam Raimi’s triumphant return to his stomping grounds?  I’m not sure, but it makes as much sense to me as any other theory.  Either way, it was an inexpensive production, and its life on Blu-ray and DVD will be a long one.  The per-screen average is better than both Trek and Terminator, so screen count appears to be an ongoing downside.

(8)  Angels & Demons ($6.5 million, $2239 per screen, $116.1 million total):  Another decent weekend, but it’s close to being played out in America.  It will be hurt by The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 next weekend.  Internationally, though, the movie is up to $293 million, so there’s no question that Sony has produced a hit film worldwide.

(9)  My Life In Ruins ($3.2 million, $2769 per screen):  Opening on less than 1200 screens, the Nia Vardalos romcom was certainly no My Big Fat Greek Wedding (not that that one had a giant opening weekend, either), but its per-screen numbers were better than several of the movies ahead of it on this list.  Fox was crazy to open this movie during the first weekend of June; according to reviews, it’s a shite movie, but if it had opened on some other weekend (preferably not one smack dab in the middle of the summer), then it might have done decent business.  As it is, it’s going to fade fast.

(10)  Dance Flick ($1.9 million, $1147 per screen, $22.6 million total):  Yuck.  I can’t stop writing about this one fast enough.

Elsewhere in box-office news, The Brothers Bloom has now officially failed to find traction in limited release, grossing only $2457 per screen in its fourth weekend (it’s at a bit more than $2 million total, which is weak).

The news might be better for Away We Go.  The Sam Mendes/John Krasinksi/Maya Rudolph dramedy opened on a whopping four screens and averaged $35,750 per; expansion might turn this one into a small-scale summer sleeper, but the slightness of the selling makes that a slippery slope to … climb.

Next weekend: The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 and Imagine That.  I think The Hangover will be #1 again, but Denzel Washington and Pelham might be able to eek one out.  I think it’s going to make $20-25 million, and that Imagine That will be good for only about $11 million.